ATP-5-0-2-1 Staff Reference Guide Volume 1 Download
Page 42 of 440
Chapter 2 26 ATP 5-0.2-1 07 December 2020 Step 2.6. Identify Critical Facts and Develop Assumptions 2-64. Facts and assumptions are the basis for plans and orders. Commanders and staffs gather facts and develop assumptions as they build their plan. A fact is a statement of truth or a statement thought to be true at the time that affects planning. Facts concerning operational and mission variables serve as the basis for situational understanding, continual planning, and assessing progress during preparation and execution. 2-65. An assumption is a specific supposition of the operational environment that is assumed to be true, in the absence of positive proof, essential for the continuation of planning (JP 5-0). In other words, an assumption is information that is accepted as true in the absence of facts. Appropriate assumptions used in decision making have two characteristics: They are valid; they are likely to be true. They are necessary; they are essential to continuing the problem solving process. As long as an assumption is both valid and necessary, leaders treat it as a fact. Problem solvers continually seek to confirm or deny the validity of their assumptions. 2-66. Commanders and staffs use care with assumptions to ensure they are not based on preconceptions, bias, false historical analogies, or wishful thinking. Effective planners also recognize any unstated assumptions. Accepting a broad assumption without understanding its sublevel components often leads to other faulty assumptions. For example, a division commander might assume a combined arms battalion from the continental United States is available in 30 days. This commander must also understand the sublevel components: adequate preparation, load and travel time, viable ports and airfields, favorable weather, and enemy encumbrance. The commander considers how the sublevel components hinder or aid the battalion's ability to be available. Commanders and staffs continuously question whether their assumptions are valid throughout planning and the operations process. Key points concerning the use of assumptions include— List and understand all assumptions received from higher headquarters. State expected conditions over which the commander has no control but are relevant to the plan. Assumptions must be logical, realistic, and considered likely to be true. Assumptions are necessary for continued planning. Too many assumptions result in a higher probability that the plan or proposed solution may be invalid. Using assumptions requires staffs to develop branches to execute if one or more key assumptions prove false. Often, an unstated assumption may prove more dangerous than a stated assumption proven wrong. 2-67. Commanders and staffs continually try to replace assumptions with facts. Throughout the MDMP, The commander and staff should list and review key assumptions on which fundamental judgements rest. Rechecking assumptions is valuable at any time during the operations process prior to rendering judgements and making decisions. Step 2.7. Begin Risk Management 2-68. Risk is the exposure of someone or something valued to danger, harm, or loss and is inherent in all operations. Because risk is part of all military operations, it cannot be avoided. Identifying, mitigating, and accepting risk is a function of command and a key consideration during planning. 2-69. Planners conducting a preliminary risk assessment must identify the obstacles or actions that may preclude mission accomplishment and then assess the impact of these impediments to the upcoming mission. Determining military risk is more an art than an exact science. Planners use historical data, intuitive analysis, and judgment. Based on judgment, military risk assessment is an integration of probability and consequence of an identified impediment. 2-70. Risk is characterized by both the probability and severity of a potential loss that may result from the presence of an adversary or a hazardous condition. The probability is generally categorized as— Very likely—occurs often, continuously experienced.